State's Primary Date Violates Rules

By WILLIAM MARCH The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 14, 2007

TAMPA - Florida's move to an earlier date for its presidential primary is wrecking the schedule political parties sought to impose last year in hope of controlling the increasingly chaotic presidential nominating process.

No one knows where the conflict will lead, but here are some possibilities:

•Holding some state primary elections in 2007 for the 2008 national elections.

•A primary campaign in which at least some of the Democratic candidates refuse to campaign here because of a national party boycott.

•A Florida Democratic primary that's merely a straw ballot, with the state's national convention delegates chosen by a caucus or state convention held later.

That would mean that in a year when Democrats have a strong hope of retaking the White House, most Florida Democrats wouldn't get a meaningful vote on their party's nominees.

The Jan. 29 primary date picked by the Florida Legislature violates schedules imposed by the Democratic and Republican parties, which say most primaries must be held Feb. 5 or later.

Both parties have rules imposing penalties on scofflaw states, cutting in half the number of delegates they normally send to their national conventions - thereby reducing their influence on choosing the nominee.

Democrats go further, though, seeking to force candidates to boycott states that jump out of line. Any candidate who campaigns in the state, even holding a small fundraiser, would lose any convention delegates from the state.

Right now, the Florida Democratic Party appears to face two options, neither very attractive: Go ahead with the Jan. 29 date despite sanctions, or set up a later delegate-selection event that conforms to the party's schedule.

That would reduce the Jan. 29 vote to a straw ballot or "beauty contest."

Unless the deadline is extended, the state party must tell the national Democratic Party its choice by June 1.

State Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman has been negotiating with national party officials to resolve the problem. Neither Thurman nor national party spokesmen would say what compromise might be possible.

"There's a lot of chit-chat going on," Thurman said. "I don't want to go into the speculation until I get a chance to actually sit with them and look at what the options are."

Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida's senior elected Democratic officeholder, opposes the idea of a straw-ballot primary.

"Is the party going to try to deny the Democrats of Florida from expressing themselves through a secret ballot of their preference for president?" he said.

"That would be contrary to the interests of the voting public, contrary to the interests of taxpayers, and would not be in the interest of the Democratic Party both nationally and in Florida."

Taxpayers pay for the primary.

Increasing Florida's Influence

Florida Republicans appear to have no qualms about breaking their national party's rules with a Jan. 29 primary.

State party Chairman Jim Greer has praised the move, even though he, like Nelson, would lose his position as a national convention delegate.

State Rep. David Rivera, R-Miami, said the move will increase Florida's influence in the nominating process. Democrats, he said, "should take comfort in the important role Florida plays in a general election and not be so concerned about delegate counts at a convention in Denver."

Even if Democrats do accept the Jan. 29 date, that won't end the matter. It could start the toppling of a five-state row of presidential dominoes.

Here's why:

Last year, the Democratic Party sought to set a schedule of early primaries that would respond to years of complaints that Iowa and New Hampshire don't reflect the nation as a whole, in part because they lack ethnic diversity.

The party allowed four exceptions to the Feb. 5 rule:

•Iowa could maintain its traditional first-in-the-nation status, with caucuses Jan. 14.

•Nevada, with a large Hispanic population, was offered a Jan. 19 caucus date.

•New Hampshire maintained its traditional status as the first primary state, Jan. 22.

•South Carolina, which has a large black population and has sought to establish itself as the first Southern primary, was set for a Jan. 29 primary.

The party chose small states, in part, to keep the "retail politics" atmosphere where candidates campaign in town halls, churches and even living rooms.

"You don't get that in a state like Florida," said Patrick Norton, spokesman for the South Carolina Democratic Party.

A Cascading Effect

With Florida moving in on South Carolina's Jan. 29 date, Norton said, South Carolina Democrats "will work with the DNC to insure that its original intentions are carried out, which is that South Carolina be the first Southern primary."

South Carolina Republicans are likely to move up also, said Neil Thigpen, political scientist at Francis Marion University in Florence, S.C.

But if South Carolina moves up, it could impinge on New Hampshire, where state law says its primary must be a week earlier than any other primary and gives its secretary of state authority to change the primary date at his discretion.

If any state enters that one-week window, "I'm going to do it the same way I have, and we're going to preserve our tradition," New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner said.

Meanwhile, Iowa law says its caucuses must be eight days before any primary or caucus, a status already threatened by the Nevada date.

"If this begins a domino effect … we will do whatever we need to do to maintain our status as first in the nation," said Mary Tiffany, Iowa Republican Party spokeswoman.

With holidays thrown into the question, Gardner said, it's "within the realm of the possible" that the result could be a 2008 presidential nominating process that begins in December 2007.

If Florida Democrats seek an alternative delegate-selection process to avoid the party strictures, there's one catch: The party, traditionally cash-strapped, would have to pay for it.

Thurman said she has seen estimates that the caucuses in Nevada, a smaller state, will cost $2 million, and a primary could cost several times that - likely beyond the state party's reach.

Another alternative could be to move the state party convention from late 2007 into February 2008, and choose delegates there. But neither option would include as many voters as a primary.

Thurman said that was part of the Republican-dominated Legislature's motive in changing the date, to undercut what she called "a very electrifying year for the Democratic Party" by disenfranchising its voters.

Republicans deny that, noting that some Democratic legislators favored the Jan. 29 date as well, even though Democratic legislative leaders introduced amendments to change it.

Some Democrats, including Nelson, question whether the national party will enforce its rules with a boycott.

"That's not going to stick," Nelson said. "Florida's one of the most fertile fields for fundraising in the country."

When the three leading Democratic candidates were asked whether they would honor a boycott, only Hillary Clinton gave a substantive response, suggesting through a spokesman that she would campaign here regardless.

Barack Obama's spokeswoman gave a noncommittal response, and John Edwards' campaign spokesmen didn't return calls for comment.

Nelson said he'll press the matter with Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and others.

"If this doesn't get resolved soon," he said, "I will take the Senate floor and speak about it."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.