Poll Tests The Waters For Bense Senate Run

By WILLIAM MARCH wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: Apr 13, 2006

TAMPA - A national Republican polling firm did a survey in Florida last week testing how state House Speaker Allan Bense would fare against Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate race.

The outcome of the poll isn't known publicly.

The fact that it was done suggests Bense may be considering entering the race or that an interest group with money to spend wants to find out how he would do.

Bense would face a primary against Katherine Harris, the Longboat Key congresswoman seeking the nomination to run against Nelson.

National Republican Party officials, concerned about Harris' ability to beat Nelson, have tried to recruit Bense and other potential candidates to run against Harris.

The poll was done by the Tarrance Group, whose principals include Ed Goeas. Goeas worked for Harris' campaign until he quit last month along with several of her other top advisers. They said they didn't think she could win.

Harris has hired a new team of advisers but hasn't announced hiring a new pollster.

Bense, from Panama City, said last year that he wasn't interested in the race. Recently, though, he wouldn't rule it out.

Bense has said he wouldn't consider or act on the issue until after the legislative session because of his major responsibilities as speaker.

Spokesmen for the Florida Republican Party and the Republican National Senatorial Committee said they weren't responsible for the poll.

Jose Lopez, a Miami social worker, said Wednesday that he was interviewed by a phone polling company about whether he would support Nelson or Bense in a Senate race between the two.

Lopez, a Democrat, said he told the caller he favors Nelson and then was asked questions "designed in a negative sense toward Nelson" and favorable ones toward Bense.

He said he was asked whether he knew that Nelson "opposed renewing the Patriot Act, which is designed to protect America from terrorism," and opposed the Bush administration tax cuts. He also was asked whether he knew Bense is "a unifier, that he saved taxpayers money."

That's common in what political operatives call "message testing" polls, intended to find out what campaign themes are likely to influence voters.

Lopez said the caller told him she worked for a company in Utah.

Kim Gardner of Western Wats, a survey research firm in Orem, Utah, confirmed Wednesday that the company made calls for a poll by the Tarrance Group, but wouldn't say who commissioned it. Goeas didn't return calls for comment Wednesday.

Pollster Clay Richards of Quinnipiac University said a reliable statewide poll in Florida could cost $20,000 to $30,000, depending on the sample size and number of questions. Others cited figures ranging from $15,000 to $40,000.

Asked about the possibility that the poll indicates a coming primary challenge, Harris spokesman Chris Ingram said, "Anybody can pay for a poll; it's almost impossible to speculate on who that might be. We're only concerned about things we can control: focusing on Katherine Harris' messages ... and taking that message to the people."

Nelson campaign manager Chad Clanton said, "Whether it's Katherine Harris or whoever, we'll be prepared."

Bense spokesman Towson Fraser didn't provide comment on whether he knew about or was involved with the poll.