That line, part of the forecast maps issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, proved to be wrong by about 80 miles when Charley crashed into Punta Gorda on Aug. 13.

Next hurricane season, that track line might be missing from forecasts as weather officials contemplate changing graphics and maps the hurricane center puts out every six hours as part of its forecast.

Those maps frequently appear in newspapers, TV broadcasts and on the Internet. The maps include a line in the center of a cone showing the possibility of error in the forecast.

People might be focusing too much on that line, the best estimate of where a hurricane will be in three, four or five days.

That line is just an estimate in the tricky science of hurricane forecasting, and Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center, constantly preaches that.

``Don't focus on that skinny line,'' Mayfield said Thursday.

He would like to see the line replaced, but officials have not decided what form new maps would take or whether there will be a change.

Before the hurricane season starts on June 1, the National Weather Service will ask emergency managers, public officials and TV meteorologists whether the forecast line is worth keeping or causes confusion.

Mayfield said the Federal Emergency Management Agency does not want the line removed.

``I'm sure we won't be able to please everybody,'' he said.

Although the forecasts have improved each year, a 24-hour forecast could be off by nearly 90 miles in any direction. In five days, the forecast can be off by more than 300 miles in any direction.

The cone shows that possibility of error.

The forecast track showed Charley heading to Tampa, but Punta Gorda was within that cone of error.

Another reason to ignore the forecast line is that it represents the center of the storm's circulation, not how large an area could be affected by the hurricane's winds.

Charley was a rare, highly compact storm. Its worst damage was confined to an area about 10 miles wide. Winds from Hurricane Frances, though, spread over much of the state.

Pasco Official Says Erase Line

Michele Baker, emergency management director for Pasco County, would like to see the forecast line disappear.

``Don't pay attention to the line. Sometimes because it's there, people become fixated on it,'' she said. ``I think the loss of that line is a good thing. The cone is a much better representation of the danger.''

Ben Nelson, state meteorologist, is lukewarm to the idea, though he said people probably do put too much emphasis on the line.

``I'm still not sure people won't just look at the center of that cone,'' said Nelson, who advises state emergency officials when a storm is approaching.

Sometimes that line is remarkably accurate, he said. It was for Frances, even five days before the storm hit, and for Hurricane Isabel in 2003, he said.

`Their Eyes Go Right To It'

TV stations frequently use the forecast map from the hurricane center showing the line in the middle of the cone.

This season, WFLA, News Channel 8, has put more focus on the cone because viewers do tend to concentrate on the forecast line, said Steve Jerve, chief meteorologist.

WFLA and The Tampa Tribune are owned by Media General and share news gathering resources.

Jerve is in favor of the hurricane center eliminating the forecast line.

``I think it's a good idea, and I can see why they'd do it. People just see it, and their eyes go right to it,'' he said.

Mayfield said tinkering with the forecast line is a short-term solution.

In the next few years, the hurricane center could have forecast maps not only showing the track, but also the probability of where tropical storm and hurricane force winds will be for each day of the forecast.

``It accounts for the uncertainty in track, intensity and size,'' he said. ``But that's a good two years off.''

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (352) 544-5214.